Respiratory Virus Thins Turkeys, Prices Might Rise for Thanksgiving Birds
Consumers might be paying higher prices this fall as another respiratory virus affects production of turkey eggs whose chicks would wind up on the Thanksgiving table
By Mary Hightower – Oct. 21, 2024
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Retailers may try to take the sting out of higher turkey prices as a respiratory virus called aMVP affects production of turkeys that would end up on the Thanksgiving table, said Jada Thompson, economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
The poultry industry has been fighting highly pathogenic avian influenza, but is also contending with avian metapneumovirus, or aMPV. The virus, which has not been found in Arkansas flocks, affects the upper respiratory system and has been detected in turkeys, broilers, layers and breeders. The virus was first detected in turkeys in South Africa in 1978. In addition to killing birds, the disease is associated with reduced egg production and soft-or thin-shelled eggs, said Dustan Clark, extension poultry veterinarian for the Division of Agriculture.
According to the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, two previously unseen subtypes of the virus — subtypes A and B — were found in California turkeys in late 2023 and confirmed in January from turkeys and broilers in Virginia and North Carolina respectively. Subtype C was known to already exist in the U.S.
Arkansas ranks third in the nation for turkey production, an industry valued in 2022 at $614 million.
Lowest since 1998
The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture said that June 1 inventories of turkey eggs in incubators was at 22.8 million — the lowest level since 1988.
Placements of newly hatched birds in facilities to be raised to slaughter weight were down in June by 18 percent year-over-year, with February 2024 the only month since 2005 with lower placements.
As of early October, turkey egg sets — eggs that were put in an incubator for hatching — were down 8 percent, said Thompson.
“That’s a pretty big loss,” she said. “You are nearing 10 percent of our eggs that won’t result in turkeys to be raised for meat.”
That’s in addition to the loss of already hatched turkeys produced for meat. “In August, we were down 11 percent in turkey meat,” Thompson said. “That means we won’t have as many turkeys at Thanksgiving.”
Supply and demand
Under the law of supply and demand, fewer turkeys would likely translate into higher prices.
However, retailers may soften the impact. While Thanksgiving might revolve around turkey, the traditional holiday feast also includes a lot of other elements.
“A lot of times retailers compensate a little bit. They’ll absorb some of those losses in the turkey price in order to get the other sales,” Thompson said.
By other sales, Thompson means that when a shopper goes to the store for holiday meal ingredients, “you’re buying eggs and milk and bread, and you’re buying the stuffing and potatoes and yams and the marshmallows, and green beans and all of the things that go with a traditional Thanksgiving meal,” she said. “So, if I’m selling you all the other goods, I don’t have to have as much profit on the turkey. It can be something of a ‘loss leader.’”
Protecting the flock
Because symptoms of aMVP can mimic those of other infections, such as AI or mycoplasma, so diagnostic testing is crucial, Clark said. Diagnostic testing can include examining swabbed respiratory system or blood samples.
Flock owners need to use solid biosecurity practices to guard against aMVP and other infections. As in avian influenza, wild birds can transmit the disease.
“We do know direct contact has been seen as transmission,” he said. “Standard biosecurity is going to help you keep aMPV from being brought in.”
Other practices include “wearing coveralls, cleaning and disinfecting equipment, boots and things like that is going to help,” Clark said. “There are vaccines in other countries, but we do not have them here.”
To learn more about the Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website. Follow us on 𝕏 at @ArkAgResearch, subscribe to the Food, Farms and Forests podcast and sign up for our monthly newsletter, the Arkansas Agricultural Research Report. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit uada.edu. Follow us on 𝕏 at @AgInArk. To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit uaex.uada.edu.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on five system campuses.
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.
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