Consumers can Expect Egg Prices to Decline, but not to 2021 Levels
“The cost of feed for eggs has gone up something like 29.5 percent,β Thompson said. βThatβs a substantial portion of the cost that goes into producing an egg.”
By Mary Hightower β Jan. 24, 2023
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. βΒ Egg prices wonβt stay high forever, but with no clear end in sight for the current round of highly pathogenic avian flu, prices wonβt descend to bargain basement levels, said Jada Thompson, a poultry economist for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
In 2022, average U.S. retail prices for eggs rose from just under $2 per dozen to more than $4 a dozen. That compares with 2021, in which egg prices in January were below $1.50. The average retail price rose lazily through the year, but never reached $2 a dozen.
βHighly pathogenic avian flu, or HPAI, has devastated the poultry industry in the U.S.,β Thompson said. βWe are about 5 to 6 percent down in our layer flock, leading us to be down in our egg supply 5-6 percent year over year.β
However, HPAI is just one of the factors driving up the price of eggs since last fall.
βAdd other factors like inflation, Β and thereβs fuel, which is impacting our transportation. Plus, you have driver shortages and that increases the cost of production and getting eggs to the market.
You have things like high demand in November and December β everybody wants those deviled eggs,β she said. βThen you add the war in Ukraine, which you donβt think about affecting eggs directly, but that affects global feed supply and trade around the world.β
Corn and soybeans play a big role in chicken feed, she said. Raising those crops has become more expensive thanks to fertilizer and diesel prices pushed higher by the Ukraine conflict.
βThe cost of feed for eggs has gone up something like 29.5 percent,β she said. βThatβs a substantial portion of the cost that goes into producing an egg.β
Outlook
Consumer price index, or βCPI, numbers are coming out and we are seeing some reduction in inflation, so thatβs the easing of food prices in general,β Thompson said. βWeβre seeing some of the wholesale, even retail prices coming down.β
Thompson said she and other economists will be looking at how bird flu affects the markets and the supply chain. However, there is no instant fix, since replenishing the supply of hens takes time.
βWe donβt have a million birds laying around,β she said. βItβs six months before we have a bird ready to lay an egg. It takes 21 days to hatch an egg; five months or 20 weeks to get that chick to maturity.β
Thompson said that in November and December of β22, the supply of birds was down.
However, βpullets β birds that are between chicks and adults β are up 5 percent,β she said. βThe replenishment chain has been trying to reduce the short supply. Weβre still hatching.β
While all those activities are easing the supply and prices, Thompson said βegg prices wonβt be declining to 2021 levels.β
Worse than 2015
The current avian influenza outbreak is worse than 2015, which was considered the largest animal health event ever. Laying hens and turkeys are more susceptible than other poultry, Thompson said.
Some 50.4 million birds in 15 states were affected by the 2015 outbreak, but the current outbreak has affected 57.9 million birds in 47 states. In 2022, layers comprised 75 percent of the poultry affected by HPAI. Turkeys were next at 16 percent, followed by broilers at 4 percent and breeders at 3 percent. In 2022, Arkansas had HPAI in three flocks affecting 56,470 birds. Β
Whatβs difference?
The virus has adapted to not kill its host. βThe wild birds are not as susceptible to it. Ducks and geese are not getting it as bad as turkeys and chickensβ enabling a wider spread and giving the outbreak a longer life, Thompson said.
In 2015, βhot summers stopped the spread and we saw it die out,β Thompson said.
The only reason the current outbreak isnβt even worse is because industry and backyard flock owners are practicing biosecurity protocols learned from the 2015 outbreak.
βWe have doubled down on biosecurity with truck washes, more personal protective equipment, which are used even during non-HPAI times,β she said.
Plus, Thompson said, there is increased surveillance and better reporting βand more communicating and social media reporting of that, and they are helping us know where the wild birds are migrating.β
“I have to give props to producers who have been increasing biosecurity, as well as local, state and federal agencies in communicating a lot more about biosecurity,β Thompson said. βAs bad as this current outbreak is, this is us trying to slow this down.β
Fighting fatigue
βOutside this hemisphere, theyβve been fighting it for several years,β said Dustan Clark, extension poultry veterinarian for the Division of Agriculture. βWeβre at a lull right now since migration is ceased, but we will fight it through this spring and probably again this fall.β
Clark says heβs seen the effects locally.
βI go to the grocery store and see people look at the eggs and move on,β he said. βOr sometimes, they just donβt find eggs.β
Over the last year, Clark has spoken dozens of times to producers and backyard flock owners and others through meetings and webinars, hammering home the need for biosecurity protocols. He said he would schedule more webinars this spring, when wildfowl start their northward migration.
βSince this virus has been detected in wild waterfowl in every state but Hawaii,β Clark said. βItβs an ongoing concern.β
βWe are trying to keep everyone vigilant and hope they donβt get fatigued,β he said. βOnce the virus slips in on you, itβs going to be problematic.β
In Arkansas, chicken eggs ranked No. 4 in terms of cash farm receipts at $568 million. Broilers topped the list with at nearly $2.7 billion, according to the latestΒ Arkansas Agriculture Profile.
The Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, or APHIS, which is part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, has aΒ site detailing confirmations of HPAIΒ in flocks and aΒ dashboardΒ for tracking wild bird infections.
βTo learn more about the Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website: https://aaes.uada.edu. Follow us on Twitter atΒ @ArkAgResearch and Instagram atΒ @ArkAgResearch.
To learn about Extension Programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visitΒ https://uaex.uada.edu/. Follow us on Twitter atΒ @AR_Extension.
To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visitΒ https://uada.edu/.Β Follow us on Twitter atΒ @AgInArk.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agricultureβs mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nationβs historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on five system campuses.
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.