Arkansas Ag Scientist Scores New Innovator Research Award To Support Climate-Resilient Crop Modeling
Current models struggle to predict interactions between genetics and the environment
By John Lovett – Sept. 11, 2025
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research awarded an Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station scientist nearly $450,000 to enhance crop yield modeling that ultimately aims to support climate-resilient crop development.
Samuel B. Fernandes, an assistant professor of agricultural statistics and quantitative genetics, received the New Innovator in Food & Agriculture Research Award, a first for a faculty member with the experiment station, the research arm of the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
Plant breeding and improved agriculture practices have increased crop yield and nutrition, but severe weather events threaten crop losses and food insecurity, Fernandes noted. Predicting how crop varieties will perform given a range of weather conditions is a real challenge for existing models.
“The current genomic prediction models that plant breeders use to develop crops that can withstand weather stresses struggle to make accurate predictions under scenarios of large genotype-by-environment interactions,” said Fernandes, a faculty member in the experiment station’s Center for Agricultural Data Analytics.
Fernandes said that the models he and his team are developing will directly integrate crop growth models, which include plant physiology and environmental interactions.
“The new genomic prediction framework my team and I are working on seeks to incorporate crop growth models alongside genomic information to generate enhanced yield predictions across current and potential future weather scenarios,” he said.
The Foundation for Food & Agriculture Research awards are granted to early-career scientists supporting research in one of the foundation’s Priority Areas.
Elvis Elli, assistant professor of crop physiology, will provide the crop growth models that will be incorporated into the new genomic prediction framework. Elli and Fernandes work in the crop, soil and environmental sciences department for the Division of Agriculture’s experiment station and the Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences at the University of Arkansas.
“Dr. Fernandes and his team are emerging leaders in his field,” said Paul DeLaune, head of the crop, soil and environmental sciences department. “Using these new selection tools can limit a lot of guess work and more accurately identify and select the most desirable traits for the most rapid pipeline from selection to field. We are excited to see the fruitful advancements discovered by collaborations between the Fernandes and Elli groups. “
Genetics vs. environment
In agriculture, genotype-by-environment interactions describe how the performance of a plant’s genetic makeup, or genotype, changes in response to different environmental conditions. A genotype that excels in one location or climate may perform poorly in another. Researching the interaction is essential to help plant breeders identify which varieties are best suited for specific environments or can perform well across a range of conditions.
“Meeting the biggest challenges in food and agriculture requires creative, pioneering science, and FFAR is proud to support the researchers pursuing these bold solutions,” said Saharah Moon Chapotin, the foundation’s executive director. “The New Innovator Awardees’ promising research is opening new avenues of knowledge to deliver groundbreaking solutions to difficult challenges.”
The New Innovator Award provides early-career scientists with funding to conduct food and agriculture research without the pressure of securing additional funding. While matching funds were not required for this award, some of the recipients secured additional funds culminating in a total investment of nearly $4.4 million over three years.
To learn more about each of the 11 award-winning research projects, please visit the New Innovator Award page.
To learn more about the Division of Agriculture research, visit the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station website. Follow us on 𝕏 at @ArkAgResearch, subscribe to the Food, Farms and Forests podcast and sign up for our monthly newsletter, the Arkansas Agricultural Research Report. To learn more about the Division of Agriculture, visit uada.edu. Follow us on 𝕏 at @AgInArk. To learn about extension programs in Arkansas, contact your local Cooperative Extension Service agent or visit uaex.uada.edu.
About the Division of Agriculture
The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s mission is to strengthen agriculture, communities, and families by connecting trusted research to the adoption of best practices. Through the Agricultural Experiment Station and the Cooperative Extension Service, the Division of Agriculture conducts research and extension work within the nation’s historic land grant education system.
The Division of Agriculture is one of 20 entities within the University of Arkansas System. It has offices in all 75 counties in Arkansas and faculty on three campuses.
Pursuant to 7 CFR § 15.3, the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services (including employment) without regard to race, color, sex, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, sexual preference, pregnancy or any other legally protected status, and is an equal opportunity institution.
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