Examining Arkansas’s Growing Timber Surplus

The Problem

Maintaining balance between forest growth and removals is vital to sustainability. A growth-to-drain ratio of 1.0 indicates that forests are growing and being harvested at the same rate. When the ratio rises too high, it can signal excess forest density, which increases the buildup of flammable material and creates favorable conditions for wildfires and insect outbreaks. Conversely, if the ratio stays below 1.0, forests could be overharvested, threatening long-term timber supplies and the many ecosystem services forests provide, including carbon storage and wildlife habitat.

The Work

Researchers with the Arkansas Forest Resources Center, which is part of the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station, analyzed data across four of Arkansas’s major ecoregions to determine how geography, forest type and land use affect the balance between forest growth and removals.

The Results

Across the four ecoregions examined, the researchers found that the Mississippi Alluvial Plain had the highest growth-to-drain ratio, driven by lower harvest activity in its predominantly agricultural landscape. The South-Central Plains, however, which is home to most of the state’s pine forests and wood-processing mills, had the lowest ratio due to high harvesting intensity.

The Value

The findings provide a more detailed picture of how forest dynamics differ across Arkansas and point to where active management and harvesting could promote healthier, more resilient forests. The data on growth-to-drain can help determine locations for economic development efforts by identifying regions where the supply of timber is more than adequate for additional harvesting and manufacturing of wood products. With forestry contributing an estimated $4 billion to Arkansas’s GDP and supporting over 26,000 jobs, understanding the growth-to-drain balance is key for both economic development and ecological stability.

About the Researchers

Co-authors of the study included Sagar Godar Chhetri, Assistant Professor of Forest Economics with the College of Forestry, Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Arkansas at Monticello; Matthew Pelkki, Professor with the Arkansas Forest Resources Center and director of the Arkansas Center for Forest Business; and Pradip Saud, an Assistant Professor of Natural Resource Biometrics with the Arkansas Agricultural Experiment Station and the University of Arkansas at Monticello’s College of Forestry, Agriculture and Natural Resources.